NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWalczaki ban
38%47%
3DMAX · 9 mapsedge Walczaki +9%Walczaki · 11 maps
AnubisWalczaki pick
50%57%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 17 maps
Nuke3DMAX ban
22%56%
3DMAX · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +34%Walczaki · 12 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
54%36%
3DMAX · 9 mapsedge 3DMAX +18%Walczaki · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%58%
3DMAX · 7 mapsnearly even -3%Walczaki · 8 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%31%
3DMAX · 6 mapsedge 3DMAX +19%Walczaki · 9 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%50%
3DMAX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Walczaki · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickWalczaki take Anubis
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. Ban3DMAX remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (55% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
3DMAX 16%Walczaki 84%
The model gave 84% on Walczaki — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Infernoprediction missed13:0
3DMAX 45%Walczaki 55%
The model gave 55% on Walczaki — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 75%
Series result3DMAX 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2