ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
5dads#186 in the world · win 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
madlikewizards#336 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust25dads pick
57%50%
5dads · 3 mapsedge 5dads +7%madlikewizards · 2 maps
Cachemadlikewizards pick
40%57%
5dads · 1 mapedge madlikewizards +17%madlikewizards · 3 maps
Mirage5dads ban
40%50%
5dads · 1 mapedge madlikewizards +10%madlikewizards · 2 maps
Ancientmadlikewizards ban
67%50%
5dads · 2 mapsedge 5dads +17%madlikewizards · 0 maps
Nuke5dads ban
50%50%
5dads · 0 mapsnearly even +0%madlikewizards · 2 maps
Infernomadlikewizards ban
50%60%
5dads · 0 mapsedge madlikewizards +10%madlikewizards · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5dads remove Nuke
2. Banmadlikewizards remove Ancient
3. Pick5dads take Dust2
4. Pickmadlikewizards take Cache
5. Banmadlikewizards remove Inferno
6. Ban5dads remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
5dads 60%madlikewizards 40%
The model gave 60% on 5dads — the map was taken by 5dads.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
5dads 31%madlikewizards 69%
The model gave 69% on madlikewizards — the map was taken by madlikewizards.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
5dads 40%madlikewizards 60%
The model gave 60% on madlikewizards — the map was taken by 5dads.
Model check result
Model favorite5dads · 64%
Series result5dads 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3