GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAlter Ego pick
25%60%
5star · 4 mapsedge Alter Ego +35%Alter Ego · 1 map
Cache5star pick
63%50%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +13%Alter Ego · 0 maps
Inferno5star ban
43%60%
5star · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Alter Ego · 1 map
AnubisAlter Ego ban
60%40%
5star · 1 mapedge 5star +20%Alter Ego · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
60%40%
5star · 1 mapedge 5star +20%Alter Ego · 1 map
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%50%
5star · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 0 maps
Dust25star ban
50%60%
5star · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
3. Pick5star take Cache
4. PickAlter Ego take Ancient
5. BanAlter Ego remove Anubis
6. Ban5star remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed1:13
5star 67%Alter Ego 33%
The model gave 67% on 5star — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
5star 53%Alter Ego 47%
The model gave 53% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Infernoprediction correct16:19
5star 33%Alter Ego 67%
The model gave 67% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 57%
Series resultAlter Ego 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3