ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · win 2:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
22%50%
5star · 14 mapsedge BRONUUD +28%BRONUUD · 0 maps
Inferno5star pick
53%50%
5star · 13 mapsnearly even +3%BRONUUD · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
59%50%
5star · 13 mapsedge 5star +9%BRONUUD · 0 maps
Cache5star ban
58%50%
5star · 8 mapsedge 5star +8%BRONUUD · 0 maps
MirageBRONUUD ban
67%50%
5star · 5 mapsedge 5star +17%BRONUUD · 0 maps
AnubisBRONUUD ban
71%50%
5star · 3 mapsedge 5star +21%BRONUUD · 0 maps
DefaultBRONUUD pick
40%50%
5star · 1 mapedge BRONUUD +10%BRONUUD · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Ancient
2. BanBRONUUD remove Anubis
3. Pick5star take Inferno
4. PickBRONUUD take Default
5. BanBRONUUD remove Mirage
6. Ban5star remove Cache
DeciderNuke (59% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
5star 64%BRONUUD 36%
The model gave 64% on 5star — the map was taken by BRONUUD.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
5star 61%BRONUUD 39%
The model gave 61% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
5star 71%BRONUUD 29%
The model gave 71% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 86%
Series result5star 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3