MESA Pro Series Summer 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID ban
67%57%
5star · 5 mapsedge 5star +10%NEXVOID · 3 maps
Ancient5star ban
44%67%
5star · 5 mapsedge NEXVOID +23%NEXVOID · 2 maps
Dust25star ban
43%63%
5star · 3 mapsedge NEXVOID +20%NEXVOID · 4 maps
OverpassNEXVOID pick
33%50%
5star · 2 mapsedge NEXVOID +17%NEXVOID · 4 maps
AnubisNEXVOID ban
50%40%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +10%NEXVOID · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
67%50%
5star · 2 mapsedge 5star +17%NEXVOID · 2 maps
Default5star pick
50%40%
5star · 0 mapsedge 5star +10%NEXVOID · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanNEXVOID remove Anubis
3. Pick5star take Default
4. PickNEXVOID take Overpass
5. BanNEXVOID remove Inferno
6. Ban5star remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
5star 57%NEXVOID 43%
The model gave 57% on 5star — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
5star 53%NEXVOID 47%
The model gave 53% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
5star 29%NEXVOID 71%
The model gave 71% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 51%
Series resultNEXVOID 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3