ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
59%50%
5star · 13 mapsedge 5star +9%The Huns · 16 maps
AncientThe Huns pick
22%56%
5star · 14 mapsedge The Huns +34%The Huns · 12 maps
Inferno5star pick
53%24%
5star · 13 mapsedge 5star +29%The Huns · 13 maps
Dust25star ban
50%62%
5star · 0 mapsedge The Huns +12%The Huns · 17 maps
Mirage5star ban
60%38%
5star · 6 mapsedge 5star +22%The Huns · 9 maps
CacheThe Huns ban
62%56%
5star · 9 mapsedge 5star +6%The Huns · 5 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
75%50%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +25%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
3. Pick5star take Inferno
4. PickThe Huns take Ancient
5. BanThe Huns remove Cache
6. Ban5star remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (59% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
5star 68%The Huns 32%
The model gave 68% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
5star 80%The Huns 20%
The model gave 80% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 78%
Series result5star 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2