FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The MongolZ#14 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientThe MongolZ ban
27%44%
5star · 11 mapsedge The MongolZ +17%The MongolZ · 5 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
46%45%
5star · 9 mapsnearly even +1%The MongolZ · 7 maps
Nuke5star pick
57%44%
5star · 10 mapsedge 5star +13%The MongolZ · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%45%
5star · 5 mapsedge 5star +22%The MongolZ · 7 maps
Cache5star ban
55%60%
5star · 7 mapsedge The MongolZ +5%The MongolZ · 1 map
Dust25star ban
50%67%
5star · 0 mapsedge The MongolZ +17%The MongolZ · 5 maps
AnubisThe MongolZ ban
71%50%
5star · 3 mapsedge 5star +21%The MongolZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanThe MongolZ remove Anubis
3. Pick5star take Nuke
4. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
5. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
6. Ban5star remove Cache
DeciderMirage (67% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
5star 54%The MongolZ 46%
The model gave 54% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
5star 60%The MongolZ 40%
The model gave 60% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 88%
Series result5star 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2