Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
6666#80 in the world · loss 17:19series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 17:19
SINQU REHTIwin 19:17The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient6666 ban
43%50%
6666 · 3 mapsedge SINQU REHTI +7%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
InfernoSINQU REHTI ban
33%50%
6666 · 2 mapsedge SINQU REHTI +17%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
Anubis6666 ban
40%50%
6666 · 1 mapedge SINQU REHTI +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
MirageSINQU REHTI ban
60%50%
6666 · 1 mapedge 6666 +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%40%
6666 · 0 mapsedge 6666 +10%SINQU REHTI · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban6666 remove Anubis
2. BanSINQU REHTI remove Inferno
3. Ban6666 remove Ancient
4. BanSINQU REHTI remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed17:19
6666 60%SINQU REHTI 40%
The model gave 60% on 6666 — the map was taken by SINQU REHTI.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU REHTI · 50%
Series resultSINQU REHTI 17:19
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1