Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
95 Vikings#221 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fortress#236 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFortress ban
50%40%
95 Vikings · 0 mapsedge 95 Vikings +10%Fortress · 1 map
Mirage95 Vikings ban
50%40%
95 Vikings · 0 mapsedge 95 Vikings +10%Fortress · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban95 Vikings remove Mirage
2. BanFortress remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
95 Vikings 53%Fortress 47%
The model gave 53% on 95 Vikings — the map was taken by Fortress.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
95 Vikings 47%Fortress 53%
The model gave 53% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Model check result
Model favorite95 Vikings · 50%
Series resultFortress 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2