Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
9INE#68 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BET-M#83 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBET-M ban
50%40%
9INE · 0 mapsedge 9INE +10%BET-M · 1 map
Inferno9INE ban
50%40%
9INE · 0 mapsedge 9INE +10%BET-M · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9INE remove Inferno
2. BanBET-M remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
9INE 57%BET-M 43%
The model gave 57% on 9INE — the map was taken by BET-M.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
9INE 63%BET-M 37%
The model gave 63% on 9INE — the map was taken by 9INE.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
9INE 50%BET-M 50%
The model gave 50% on 9INE — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favorite9INE · 63%
Series resultBET-M 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3