Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
9INE#80 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
38%68%
9INE · 4 mapsedge BRUTE +30%BRUTE · 18 maps
Nuke9INE pick
63%56%
9INE · 4 mapsedge 9INE +7%BRUTE · 12 maps
Inferno9INE ban
67%64%
9INE · 2 mapsnearly even +3%BRUTE · 7 maps
Mirage9INE ban
50%54%
9INE · 0 mapsnearly even -4%BRUTE · 9 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
40%33%
9INE · 1 mapedge 9INE +7%BRUTE · 5 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%70%
9INE · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +20%BRUTE · 6 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
40%43%
9INE · 1 mapnearly even -3%BRUTE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9INE remove Mirage
2. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
3. Pick9INE take Nuke
4. PickBRUTE take Dust2
5. BanBRUTE remove Cache
6. Ban9INE remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
9INE 43%BRUTE 57%
The model gave 57% on BRUTE — the map was taken by 9INE.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
9INE 59%BRUTE 41%
The model gave 59% on 9INE — the map was taken by 9INE.
Model check result
Model favorite9INE · 56%
Series result9INE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2