BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
9INE#80 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nuke9INE ban
50%77%
9INE · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +27%Walczaki · 9 maps
Ancient9INE pick
60%67%
9INE · 1 mapedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 5 maps
AnubisWalczaki pick
50%67%
9INE · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%57%
9INE · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 3 maps
Inferno9INE ban
40%67%
9INE · 1 mapedge Walczaki +27%Walczaki · 2 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%57%
9INE · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 3 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
40%60%
9INE · 1 mapedge Walczaki +20%Walczaki · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9INE remove Nuke
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. Pick9INE take Ancient
4. PickWalczaki take Anubis
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. Ban9INE remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:13
9INE 23%Walczaki 77%
The model gave 77% on Walczaki — the map was taken by 9INE.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
9INE 33%Walczaki 67%
The model gave 67% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
9INE 33%Walczaki 67%
The model gave 67% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favorite9INE · 54%
Series resultWalczaki 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3