Thunderpick World Championship 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · win 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
56%60%
9z · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Aurora · 16 maps
NukeAurora pick
33%75%
9z · 8 mapsedge Aurora +42%Aurora · 8 maps
Dust29z pick
50%50%
9z · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 8 maps
Anubis9z ban
50%69%
9z · 0 mapsedge Aurora +19%Aurora · 12 maps
CacheAurora ban
50%45%
9z · 4 mapsedge 9z +5%Aurora · 7 maps
Inferno9z ban
29%55%
9z · 3 mapsedge Aurora +26%Aurora · 7 maps
AncientAurora ban
33%40%
9z · 2 mapsedge Aurora +7%Aurora · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. Pick9z take Dust2
4. PickAurora take Nuke
5. BanAurora remove Cache
6. Ban9z remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
9z 27%Aurora 73%
The model gave 73% on Aurora — the map was taken by 9z.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
9z 13%Aurora 87%
The model gave 87% on Aurora — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 71%
Series result9z 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2