FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#13 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust29z pick
50%33%
9z · 12 mapsedge 9z +17%G2 · 8 maps
InfernoG2 pick
50%69%
9z · 8 mapsedge G2 +19%G2 · 9 maps
Mirage9z ban
50%69%
9z · 8 mapsedge G2 +19%G2 · 9 maps
AncientG2 ban
43%38%
9z · 3 mapsedge 9z +5%G2 · 9 maps
NukeG2 ban
46%50%
9z · 9 mapsnearly even -4%G2 · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
63%63%
9z · 4 mapsnearly even +0%G2 · 4 maps
Anubis9z ban
50%40%
9z · 0 mapsedge 9z +10%G2 · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanG2 remove Nuke
3. Pick9z take Dust2
4. PickG2 take Inferno
5. BanG2 remove Ancient
6. Ban9z remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (63% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
9z 69%G2 31%
The model gave 69% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
9z 52%G2 48%
The model gave 52% on 9z — the map was taken by G2.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
9z 31%G2 69%
The model gave 69% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 63%
Series resultG2 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3