ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · win 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TYLOO#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTYLOO pick
50%71%
9z · 6 mapsedge TYLOO +21%TYLOO · 10 maps
InfernoTYLOO ban
44%42%
9z · 5 mapsnearly even +2%TYLOO · 8 maps
Ancient9z ban
43%69%
9z · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +26%TYLOO · 9 maps
Nuke9z pick
50%29%
9z · 8 mapsedge 9z +21%TYLOO · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%71%
9z · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +14%TYLOO · 3 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
50%50%
9z · 6 mapsnearly even +0%TYLOO · 0 maps
Anubis9z ban
50%33%
9z · 0 mapsedge 9z +17%TYLOO · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. Pick9z take Nuke
4. PickTYLOO take Mirage
5. BanTYLOO remove Inferno
6. Ban9z remove Ancient
DeciderCache (57% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
9z 74%TYLOO 26%
The model gave 74% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
9z 26%TYLOO 74%
The model gave 74% on TYLOO — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favorite9z · 77%
Series result9z 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2