Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
A Great Chaos#187 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gatorianloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientA Great Chaos ban
40%50%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapedge Gatorian +10%Gatorian · 2 maps
MirageA Great Chaos pick
50%40%
A Great Chaos · 2 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%Gatorian · 1 map
NukeGatorian pick
60%60%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapnearly even +0%Gatorian · 1 map
OverpassGatorian ban
40%50%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapedge Gatorian +10%Gatorian · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanA Great Chaos remove Ancient
2. BanGatorian remove Overpass
3. PickA Great Chaos take Mirage
4. PickGatorian take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
A Great Chaos 53%Gatorian 47%
The model gave 53% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by A Great Chaos.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
A Great Chaos 47%Gatorian 53%
The model gave 53% on Gatorian — the map was taken by A Great Chaos.
Model check result
Model favoriteA Great Chaos · 50%
Series resultA Great Chaos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2