BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AaB#69 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
aAa#132 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientaAa ban
50%33%
AaB · 6 mapsedge AaB +17%aAa · 2 maps
Dust2AaB ban
50%38%
AaB · 0 mapsedge AaB +12%aAa · 4 maps
NukeAaB ban
33%33%
AaB · 2 mapsnearly even +0%aAa · 2 maps
OverpassAaB pick
50%50%
AaB · 4 mapsnearly even +0%aAa · 0 maps
AnubisaAa pick
50%60%
AaB · 2 mapsedge aAa +10%aAa · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%40%
AaB · 0 mapsedge AaB +10%aAa · 1 map
MirageaAa ban
40%50%
AaB · 1 mapedge aAa +10%aAa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAaB remove Dust2
2. BanaAa remove Mirage
3. PickAaB take Overpass
4. PickaAa take Anubis
5. BanaAa remove Ancient
6. BanAaB remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
AaB 47%aAa 53%
The model gave 53% on aAa — the map was taken by AaB.
Overpassprediction correct13:7
AaB 53%aAa 47%
The model gave 53% on AaB — the map was taken by AaB.
Model check result
Model favoriteAaB · 67%
Series resultAaB 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2