ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAbyssal pick
67%67%
Abyssal · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 2 maps
InfernoAbyssal ban
50%60%
Abyssal · 2 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 1 map
NukeGround Zero pick
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%Ground Zero · 2 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%40%
Abyssal · 1 mapnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 1 map
DefaultGround Zero ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
OverpassGround Zero ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. BanGround Zero remove Overpass
3. PickAbyssal take Mirage
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Default
6. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Abyssal 53%Ground Zero 47%
The model gave 53% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Abyssal 57%Ground Zero 43%
The model gave 57% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Abyssal 40%Ground Zero 60%
The model gave 60% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 58%
Series resultGround Zero 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3