DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ground Zero pick
57%44%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +13%Ground Zero · 14 maps
MirageAbyssal pick
55%55%
Abyssal · 7 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 7 maps
NukeAbyssal ban
38%79%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge Ground Zero +41%Ground Zero · 10 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
56%57%
Abyssal · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Ground Zero · 3 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
50%45%
Abyssal · 0 mapsedge Abyssal +5%Ground Zero · 7 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
60%40%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +20%Ground Zero · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
40%60%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +20%Ground Zero · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
2. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
3. PickAbyssal take Mirage
4. PickGround Zero take Dust2
5. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
6. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
Abyssal 72%Ground Zero 28%
The model gave 72% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
Abyssal 52%Ground Zero 48%
The model gave 52% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 69%
Series resultGround Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2