DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mindfreak#213 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAbyssal ban
50%40%
Abyssal · 6 mapsedge Abyssal +10%Mindfreak · 1 map
MirageMindfreak ban
56%50%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge Abyssal +6%Mindfreak · 0 maps
NukeMindfreak pick
50%50%
Abyssal · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 0 maps
OverpassAbyssal pick
57%50%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +7%Mindfreak · 0 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
DefaultMindfreak ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. BanMindfreak remove Default
3. PickAbyssal take Overpass
4. PickMindfreak take Nuke
5. BanMindfreak remove Mirage
6. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Abyssal 58%Mindfreak 42%
The model gave 58% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
Abyssal 57%Mindfreak 43%
The model gave 57% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Abyssal 50%Mindfreak 50%
The model gave 50% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 56%
Series resultMindfreak 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3