DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#129 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NEXVOID#74 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
45%64%
Abyssal · 16 mapsedge NEXVOID +19%NEXVOID · 29 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%69%
Abyssal · 6 mapsedge NEXVOID +9%NEXVOID · 28 maps
Dust2NEXVOID ban
56%40%
Abyssal · 12 mapsedge Abyssal +16%NEXVOID · 21 map
NukeAbyssal ban
42%50%
Abyssal · 8 mapsedge NEXVOID +8%NEXVOID · 14 maps
CacheAbyssal pick
63%36%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge Abyssal +27%NEXVOID · 7 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
73%50%
Abyssal · 11 mapsedge Abyssal +23%NEXVOID · 0 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%63%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +23%NEXVOID · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
3. PickAbyssal take Cache
4. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
5. BanNEXVOID remove Dust2
6. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (60% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed6:13
Abyssal 77%NEXVOID 23%
The model gave 77% on Abyssal — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
Abyssal 38%NEXVOID 62%
The model gave 62% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 63%
Series resultNEXVOID 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2