Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BET-M#65 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
65%56%
Acend · 13 mapsedge Acend +9%BET-M · 5 maps
AncientBET-M ban
50%36%
Acend · 6 mapsedge Acend +14%BET-M · 7 maps
Dust2Acend ban
47%50%
Acend · 11 mapsnearly even -3%BET-M · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%38%
Acend · 6 mapsnearly even +2%BET-M · 4 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
33%50%
Acend · 8 mapsedge BET-M +17%BET-M · 0 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%50%
Acend · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BET-M · 6 maps
DefaultBET-M pick
71%50%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Acend +21%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanBET-M remove Overpass
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickBET-M take Default
5. BanBET-M remove Ancient
6. BanAcend remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (40% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Acend 56%BET-M 44%
The model gave 56% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Acend 44%BET-M 56%
The model gave 56% on BET-M — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 66%
Series resultAcend 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2