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NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
45%59%
Acend · 7 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%Black Phoenix · 45 maps
Miragepossible decider
42%44%
Acend · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Black Phoenix · 23 maps
InfernoAcend pick
64%67%
Acend · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
44%24%
Acend · 5 mapsedge Acend +20%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%52%
Acend · 0 mapsnearly even -2%Black Phoenix · 21 map
CacheAcend ban
33%53%
Acend · 5 mapsedge Black Phoenix +20%Black Phoenix · 15 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
54%33%
Acend · 9 mapsedge Acend +21%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickAcend take Inferno
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
6. BanAcend remove Cache
DeciderMirage (42% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
Acend 34%Black Phoenix 66%
The model gave 66% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Acend 50%Black Phoenix 50%
The model gave 50% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
Acend 47%Black Phoenix 53%
The model gave 53% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 57%
Series resultAcend 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3