European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2INOX Division pick
50%76%
Acend · 10 mapsedge INOX Division +26%INOX Division · 17 maps
OverpassAcend ban
33%56%
Acend · 8 mapsedge INOX Division +23%INOX Division · 12 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%65%
Acend · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +15%INOX Division · 19 maps
InfernoAcend pick
44%59%
Acend · 5 mapsedge INOX Division +15%INOX Division · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%58%
Acend · 6 mapsedge INOX Division +8%INOX Division · 8 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
65%50%
Acend · 13 mapsedge Acend +15%INOX Division · 0 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
50%40%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%INOX Division · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickAcend take Inferno
4. PickINOX Division take Dust2
5. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
6. BanAcend remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Acend 39%INOX Division 61%
The model gave 61% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
Acend 22%INOX Division 78%
The model gave 78% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 54%
Series resultINOX Division 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2