Stake Ranked Episode 3 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Phantom#88 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
62%44%
Acend · 9 mapsedge Acend +18%Phantom · 12 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
55%64%
Acend · 7 mapsedge Phantom +9%Phantom · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%45%
Acend · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Phantom · 7 maps
OverpassAcend ban
38%60%
Acend · 4 mapsedge Phantom +22%Phantom · 6 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%54%
Acend · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom · 9 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
57%50%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Acend +7%Phantom · 0 maps
DefaultPhantom ban
60%50%
Acend · 1 mapedge Acend +10%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanPhantom remove Inferno
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickPhantom take Dust2
5. BanPhantom remove Default
6. BanAcend remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (44% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Acend 37%Phantom 63%
The model gave 63% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Acend 70%Phantom 30%
The model gave 70% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
Acend 29%Phantom 71%
The model gave 71% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 61%
Series resultPhantom 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3