NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ursa#88 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
50%57%
Acend · 6 mapsedge Ursa +7%Ursa · 17 maps
MirageAcend pick
62%46%
Acend · 9 mapsedge Acend +16%Ursa · 9 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%38%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +12%Ursa · 12 maps
InfernoAcend ban
50%33%
Acend · 2 mapsedge Acend +17%Ursa · 8 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
38%33%
Acend · 4 mapsedge Acend +5%Ursa · 5 maps
AncientUrsa ban
44%50%
Acend · 5 mapsedge Ursa +6%Ursa · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Acend · 1 mapedge Acend +10%Ursa · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanUrsa remove Ancient
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickUrsa take Dust2
5. BanUrsa remove Overpass
6. BanAcend remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Acend 40%Ursa 60%
The model gave 60% on Ursa — the map was taken by Acend.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
Acend 69%Ursa 31%
The model gave 69% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 59%
Series resultAcend 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2