Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Aether#215 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shimmer#226 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAether ban
60%50%
Aether · 1 mapedge Aether +10%Shimmer · 0 maps
Dust2Shimmer ban
60%50%
Aether · 1 mapedge Aether +10%Shimmer · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAether remove Ancient
2. BanShimmer remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Aether 47%Shimmer 53%
The model gave 53% on Shimmer — the map was taken by Aether.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Aether 63%Shimmer 37%
The model gave 63% on Aether — the map was taken by Aether.
Model check result
Model favoriteAether · 54%
Series resultAether 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2