Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
aimclub#98 in the world · win 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
38%59%
aimclub · 4 mapsedge BRUTE +21%BRUTE · 18 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
63%50%
aimclub · 4 mapsedge aimclub +13%BRUTE · 10 maps
Mirageaimclub pick
67%62%
aimclub · 5 mapsedge aimclub +5%BRUTE · 9 maps
Cacheaimclub ban
57%50%
aimclub · 3 mapsedge aimclub +7%BRUTE · 10 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
50%62%
aimclub · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +12%BRUTE · 9 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
33%33%
aimclub · 5 mapsnearly even +0%BRUTE · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%57%
aimclub · 2 mapsedge aimclub +10%BRUTE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banaimclub remove Nuke
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. Pickaimclub take Mirage
4. PickBRUTE take Dust2
5. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
6. Banaimclub remove Cache
DeciderInferno (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
aimclub 58%BRUTE 42%
The model gave 58% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
aimclub 27%BRUTE 73%
The model gave 73% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
aimclub 63%BRUTE 37%
The model gave 63% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 70%
Series resultaimclub 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3