United21 League Season 49 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALGO#146 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisALGO pick
36%50%
ALGO · 7 mapsedge NAVI Junior +14%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
56%50%
ALGO · 5 mapsedge ALGO +6%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
56%50%
ALGO · 5 mapsedge ALGO +6%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
AncientALGO ban
50%50%
ALGO · 4 mapsnearly even +0%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
MirageALGO ban
25%50%
ALGO · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +25%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
OverpassNAVI Junior pick
33%50%
ALGO · 2 mapsedge NAVI Junior +17%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge NAVI Junior +10%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALGO remove Mirage
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
3. PickALGO take Anubis
4. PickNAVI Junior take Overpass
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
6. BanALGO remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
ALGO 23%NAVI Junior 77%
The model gave 77% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
ALGO 58%NAVI Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on ALGO — the map was taken by ALGO.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
ALGO 56%NAVI Junior 44%
The model gave 56% on ALGO — the map was taken by ALGO.
Model check result
Model favoriteALGO · 62%
Series resultALGO 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3