CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
63%38%
ALKA · 23 mapsedge ALKA +25%Grêmio · 9 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
59%54%
ALKA · 13 mapsedge ALKA +5%Grêmio · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%43%
ALKA · 17 mapsnearly even +0%Grêmio · 3 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
50%33%
ALKA · 10 mapsedge ALKA +17%Grêmio · 5 maps
NukeALKA ban
50%38%
ALKA · 8 mapsedge ALKA +12%Grêmio · 4 maps
CacheGrêmio ban
50%38%
ALKA · 6 mapsedge ALKA +12%Grêmio · 4 maps
DefaultALKA ban
33%67%
ALKA · 2 mapsedge Grêmio +34%Grêmio · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Default
2. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickGrêmio take Inferno
5. BanGrêmio remove Cache
6. BanALKA remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (43% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
ALKA 60%Grêmio 40%
The model gave 60% on ALKA — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
ALKA 53%Grêmio 47%
The model gave 53% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
ALKA 67%Grêmio 33%
The model gave 67% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 70%
Series resultALKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3