CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
59%50%
ALKA · 13 mapsedge ALKA +9%Pugdesonesto · 0 maps
AncientPugdesonesto ban
53%40%
ALKA · 11 mapsedge ALKA +13%Pugdesonesto · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
64%33%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge ALKA +31%Pugdesonesto · 2 maps
MirageALKA ban
55%50%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge ALKA +5%Pugdesonesto · 0 maps
CachePugdesonesto ban
56%40%
ALKA · 5 mapsedge ALKA +16%Pugdesonesto · 1 map
NukeALKA ban
50%50%
ALKA · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Pugdesonesto · 0 maps
DefaultPugdesonesto pick
40%50%
ALKA · 1 mapedge Pugdesonesto +10%Pugdesonesto · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Mirage
2. BanPugdesonesto remove Cache
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickPugdesonesto take Default
5. BanPugdesonesto remove Ancient
6. BanALKA remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (64% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
ALKA 66%Pugdesonesto 34%
The model gave 66% on ALKA — the map was taken by Pugdesonesto.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
ALKA 56%Pugdesonesto 44%
The model gave 56% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
ALKA 50%Pugdesonesto 50%
The model gave 50% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 74%
Series resultALKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3