CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
63%67%
ALKA · 12 mapsnearly even -4%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 2 maps
AncientQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
57%50%
ALKA · 10 mapsedge ALKA +7%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
64%60%
ALKA · 7 mapsnearly even +4%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
NukeQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
50%50%
ALKA · 8 mapsnearly even +0%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 0 maps
MirageALKA ban
50%60%
ALKA · 6 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +10%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
CacheQUINTESSÊNCIA pick
63%67%
ALKA · 4 mapsnearly even -4%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 2 maps
AnubisALKA ban
40%40%
ALKA · 1 mapnearly even +0%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Anubis
2. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Nuke
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickQUINTESSÊNCIA take Cache
5. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Ancient
6. BanALKA remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (64% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
ALKA 42%QUINTESSÊNCIA 58%
The model gave 58% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
ALKA 60%QUINTESSÊNCIA 40%
The model gave 60% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
ALKA 40%QUINTESSÊNCIA 60%
The model gave 60% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 65%
Series resultALKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3