1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAlliance ban
62%50%
Alliance · 9 mapsedge Alliance +12%3DMAX · 14 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
62%44%
Alliance · 9 mapsedge Alliance +18%3DMAX · 14 maps
CacheAlliance ban
40%58%
Alliance · 1 mapedge 3DMAX +18%3DMAX · 15 maps
Dust23DMAX pick
38%63%
Alliance · 4 mapsedge 3DMAX +25%3DMAX · 12 maps
Nuke3DMAX ban
43%38%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge Alliance +5%3DMAX · 12 maps
Anubis3DMAX ban
50%43%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Alliance +7%3DMAX · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Cache
2. Ban3DMAX remove Anubis
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. Pick3DMAX take Dust2
5. Ban3DMAX remove Nuke
6. BanAlliance remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Alliance 24%3DMAX 76%
The model gave 76% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Alliance 69%3DMAX 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 61%
Series result3DMAX 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2