ROG JOURNEY Summer 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nexus#159 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAlliance pick
70%60%
Alliance · 6 mapsedge Alliance +10%Nexus · 1 map
NukeNexus ban
45%50%
Alliance · 7 mapsedge Nexus +5%Nexus · 0 maps
AnubisNexus pick
38%60%
Alliance · 4 mapsedge Nexus +22%Nexus · 1 map
Dust2Nexus ban
50%50%
Alliance · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Nexus · 0 maps
AncientAlliance ban
43%50%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge Nexus +7%Nexus · 0 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%40%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Alliance +10%Nexus · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
40%50%
Alliance · 1 mapedge Nexus +10%Nexus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanNexus remove Dust2
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickNexus take Anubis
5. BanNexus remove Nuke
6. BanAlliance remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
Alliance 37%Nexus 63%
The model gave 63% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Alliance 64%Nexus 36%
The model gave 64% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Alliance 29%Nexus 71%
The model gave 71% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 85%
Series resultNexus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3