1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSINNERS ban
67%50%
Alliance · 8 mapsedge Alliance +17%SINNERS · 12 maps
Dust2SINNERS pick
43%65%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge SINNERS +22%SINNERS · 16 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
58%46%
Alliance · 8 mapsedge Alliance +12%SINNERS · 9 maps
CacheAlliance ban
40%44%
Alliance · 1 mapnearly even -4%SINNERS · 12 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%56%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +6%SINNERS · 12 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
43%38%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge Alliance +5%SINNERS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickSINNERS take Dust2
5. BanSINNERS remove Ancient
6. BanAlliance remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Alliance 26%SINNERS 74%
The model gave 74% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Alliance 65%SINNERS 35%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
Alliance 67%SINNERS 33%
The model gave 67% on Alliance — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 67%
Series resultSINNERS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3