Tipsport Conquest of Prague 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
40%61%
Alliance · 1 mapedge Walczaki +21%Walczaki · 19 maps
AncientAlliance ban
33%69%
Alliance · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +36%Walczaki · 12 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%75%
Alliance · 1 mapedge Walczaki +35%Walczaki · 8 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
50%55%
Alliance · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +5%Walczaki · 7 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
60%64%
Alliance · 1 mapnearly even -4%Walczaki · 7 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%73%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +23%Walczaki · 7 maps
DefaultWalczaki ban
50%56%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +6%Walczaki · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Default
6. BanAlliance remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (40% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
Alliance 28%Walczaki 72%
The model gave 72% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Alliance.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Alliance 49%Walczaki 51%
The model gave 51% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 62%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2