ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#120 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
60%52%
Alter Ego · 6 mapsedge Alter Ego +8%Kaleido · 17 maps
Dust2Alter Ego pick
62%65%
Alter Ego · 9 mapsnearly even -3%Kaleido · 13 maps
InfernoAlter Ego ban
57%42%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +15%Kaleido · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%45%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +12%Kaleido · 7 maps
CacheKaleido ban
71%25%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +46%Kaleido · 4 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%57%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Kaleido +7%Kaleido · 3 maps
AnubisKaleido ban
50%33%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Kaleido · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
2. BanKaleido remove Cache
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Anubis
6. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (57% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Alter Ego 55%Kaleido 45%
The model gave 55% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
Alter Ego 50%Kaleido 50%
The model gave 50% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Alter Ego 62%Kaleido 38%
The model gave 62% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 62%
Series resultKaleido 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3