DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#127 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NEXVOID#74 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
67%70%
Alter Ego · 11 mapsnearly even -3%NEXVOID · 29 maps
Dust2Alter Ego pick
65%40%
Alter Ego · 16 mapsedge Alter Ego +25%NEXVOID · 21 map
InfernoNEXVOID pick
58%64%
Alter Ego · 8 mapsedge NEXVOID +6%NEXVOID · 29 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%50%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 14 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
60%42%
Alter Ego · 6 mapsedge Alter Ego +18%NEXVOID · 8 maps
AnubisNEXVOID ban
67%63%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsnearly even +4%NEXVOID · 4 maps
DefaultAlter Ego ban
43%50%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge NEXVOID +7%NEXVOID · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
2. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
5. BanNEXVOID remove Anubis
6. BanAlter Ego remove Default
DeciderAncient (67% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
Alter Ego 76%NEXVOID 24%
The model gave 76% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Alter Ego 42%NEXVOID 58%
The model gave 58% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
Alter Ego 47%NEXVOID 53%
The model gave 53% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 56%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3