DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OCOff Chops#131 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
63%50%
Alter Ego · 15 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Off Chops · 6 maps
AncientOff Chops ban
69%40%
Alter Ego · 9 mapsedge Alter Ego +29%Off Chops · 1 map
InfernoAlter Ego ban
56%43%
Alter Ego · 5 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Off Chops · 3 maps
CacheOff Chops pick
60%60%
Alter Ego · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Off Chops · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
67%50%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Off Chops · 2 maps
MirageOff Chops ban
63%50%
Alter Ego · 4 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Off Chops · 0 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%67%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Off Chops +17%Off Chops · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
2. BanOff Chops remove Mirage
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickOff Chops take Cache
5. BanOff Chops remove Ancient
6. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Alter Ego 60%Off Chops 40%
The model gave 60% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Alter Ego 79%Off Chops 21%
The model gave 79% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 52%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2