ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
60%50%
Alter Ego · 11 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Vitalem Aerem · 10 maps
AncientVitalem Aerem pick
64%50%
Alter Ego · 7 mapsedge Alter Ego +14%Vitalem Aerem · 10 maps
InfernoVitalem Aerem ban
57%40%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Vitalem Aerem · 6 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%44%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +6%Vitalem Aerem · 5 maps
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
63%50%
Alter Ego · 4 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
MirageAlter Ego ban
57%60%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
60%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Alter Ego +10%Vitalem Aerem · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Ancient
5. BanVitalem Aerem remove Inferno
6. BanAlter Ego remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
Alter Ego 61%Vitalem Aerem 39%
The model gave 61% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Alter Ego 50%Vitalem Aerem 50%
The model gave 50% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 57%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2