NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAM pick
60%29%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +31%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AncientAM ban
60%50%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +10%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Dust2AM ban
50%57%
AM · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT ban
50%40%
AM · 2 mapsedge AM +10%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
AM · 1 mapnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
67%50%
AM · 2 mapsedge AM +17%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
OverpassMOUZ NXT pick
60%50%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +10%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Dust2
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickAM take Mirage
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Overpass
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Nuke
6. BanAM remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
AM 77%MOUZ NXT 23%
The model gave 77% on AM — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
AM 63%MOUZ NXT 37%
The model gave 63% on AM — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 65%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2