ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
Arcade#159 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage5dads pick
45%50%
Arcade · 7 mapsedge 5dads +5%5dads · 0 maps
NukeArcade pick
36%50%
Arcade · 7 mapsedge 5dads +14%5dads · 0 maps
Inferno5dads ban
67%50%
Arcade · 5 mapsedge Arcade +17%5dads · 0 maps
Dust2Arcade ban
38%50%
Arcade · 4 mapsedge 5dads +12%5dads · 0 maps
Cache5dads ban
50%50%
Arcade · 2 mapsnearly even +0%5dads · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArcade remove Dust2
2. Ban5dads remove Inferno
3. PickArcade take Nuke
4. Pick5dads take Mirage
5. Ban5dads remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
Arcade 35%5dads 65%
The model gave 65% on 5dads — the map was taken by 5dads.
Cacheprediction correct19:17
Arcade 53%5dads 47%
The model gave 53% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Arcade 50%5dads 50%
The model gave 50% on Arcade — the map was taken by 5dads.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 61%
Series result5dads 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3