ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Arcade#198 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGround Zero pick
40%75%
Arcade · 6 mapsedge Ground Zero +35%Ground Zero · 12 maps
Dust2Arcade ban
43%50%
Arcade · 3 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 14 maps
Miragepossible decider
45%60%
Arcade · 7 mapsedge Ground Zero +15%Ground Zero · 6 maps
AnubisArcade ban
50%50%
Arcade · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 10 maps
InfernoArcade pick
67%63%
Arcade · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Ground Zero · 4 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
50%57%
Arcade · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 3 maps
CacheGround Zero ban
50%50%
Arcade · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArcade remove Anubis
2. BanGround Zero remove Cache
3. PickArcade take Inferno
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
6. BanArcade remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (45% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
Arcade 20%Ground Zero 80%
The model gave 80% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Arcade 40%Ground Zero 60%
The model gave 60% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 78%
Series resultGround Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2