ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Arcade#198 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageArcade ban
40%58%
Arcade · 6 mapsedge Rooster +18%Rooster · 8 maps
InfernoRooster ban
63%55%
Arcade · 4 mapsedge Arcade +8%Rooster · 7 maps
NukeRooster ban
44%33%
Arcade · 5 mapsedge Arcade +11%Rooster · 5 maps
Dust2Rooster pick
43%50%
Arcade · 3 mapsedge Rooster +7%Rooster · 6 maps
AnubisArcade ban
50%67%
Arcade · 0 mapsedge Rooster +17%Rooster · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%60%
Arcade · 2 mapsedge Rooster +10%Rooster · 1 map
OverpassArcade pick
50%40%
Arcade · 0 mapsedge Arcade +10%Rooster · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArcade remove Anubis
2. BanRooster remove Nuke
3. PickArcade take Overpass
4. PickRooster take Dust2
5. BanRooster remove Inferno
6. BanArcade remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
Arcade 64%Rooster 36%
The model gave 64% on Arcade — the map was taken by Rooster.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
Arcade 55%Rooster 45%
The model gave 55% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Arcade 32%Rooster 68%
The model gave 68% on Rooster — the map was taken by Arcade.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 51%
Series resultArcade 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3