ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Arch#247 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageArch pick
50%50%
Arch · 0 mapsnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
AncientArch ban
50%60%
Arch · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Dust2OLDBOYS PL ban
50%40%
Arch · 0 mapsedge Arch +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArch remove Ancient
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Dust2
3. PickArch take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
Arch 53%OLDBOYS PL 47%
The model gave 53% on Arch — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
Arch 37%OLDBOYS PL 63%
The model gave 63% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by Arch.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Arch 60%OLDBOYS PL 40%
The model gave 60% on Arch — the map was taken by Arch.
Model check result
Model favoriteArch · 50%
Series resultArch 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3