ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Arch#247 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wingman pick
60%60%
Arch · 1 mapnearly even +0%Wingman · 1 map
AncientArch pick
60%50%
Arch · 1 mapedge Arch +10%Wingman · 0 maps
AnubisWingman ban
40%50%
Arch · 1 mapedge Wingman +10%Wingman · 0 maps
InfernoArch ban
50%60%
Arch · 0 mapsedge Wingman +10%Wingman · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArch remove Inferno
2. BanWingman remove Anubis
3. PickArch take Ancient
4. PickWingman take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Arch 53%Wingman 47%
The model gave 53% on Arch — the map was taken by Wingman.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Arch 47%Wingman 53%
The model gave 53% on Wingman — the map was taken by Arch.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Arch 60%Wingman 40%
The model gave 60% on Arch — the map was taken by Arch.
Model check result
Model favoriteArch · 50%
Series resultArch 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3