NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
43%58%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +15%ASTRAL · 20 maps
Dust2ASTRAL ban
71%50%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge ARCRED +21%ASTRAL · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
ARCRED · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 10 maps
NukeARCRED ban
50%33%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge ARCRED +17%ASTRAL · 8 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
63%67%
ARCRED · 4 mapsnearly even -4%ASTRAL · 5 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
50%38%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge ARCRED +12%ASTRAL · 9 maps
DefaultARCRED ban
50%60%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Dust2
6. BanARCRED remove Default
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
ARCRED 32%ASTRAL 68%
The model gave 68% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
ARCRED 64%ASTRAL 36%
The model gave 64% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
ARCRED 50%ASTRAL 50%
The model gave 50% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 51%
Series resultARCRED 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3