WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVirtus.pro pick
50%57%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +7%Virtus.pro · 3 maps
Dust2Virtus.pro ban
71%60%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge ARCRED +11%Virtus.pro · 1 map
MirageARCRED ban
60%67%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge Virtus.pro +7%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
67%50%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge ARCRED +17%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
60%60%
ARCRED · 1 mapnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 1 map
OverpassARCRED ban
50%67%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge Virtus.pro +17%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Overpass
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Dust2
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickVirtus.pro take Ancient
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
6. BanARCRED remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct20:22
ARCRED 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
ARCRED 69%Virtus.pro 31%
The model gave 69% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
ARCRED 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3