NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeARCRED ban
50%58%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +8%Walczaki · 22 maps
AncientWalczaki pick
38%61%
ARCRED · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +23%Walczaki · 14 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
71%57%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge ARCRED +14%Walczaki · 10 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
63%75%
ARCRED · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +12%Walczaki · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%73%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +16%Walczaki · 7 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
60%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge ARCRED +10%Walczaki · 8 maps
DefaultARCRED ban
50%56%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +6%Walczaki · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickWalczaki take Ancient
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. BanARCRED remove Default
DeciderMirage (57% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
ARCRED 25%Walczaki 75%
The model gave 75% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
ARCRED 36%Walczaki 64%
The model gave 64% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 66%
Series resultWalczaki 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2