WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WW#123 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW ban
78%50%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge ARCRED +28%WW · 8 maps
MirageWW pick
44%64%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge WW +20%WW · 7 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
73%50%
ARCRED · 7 mapsedge ARCRED +23%WW · 2 maps
NukeARCRED ban
43%38%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge ARCRED +5%WW · 4 maps
AncientWW ban
33%50%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge WW +17%WW · 0 maps
CacheARCRED ban
40%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge WW +10%WW · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge ARCRED +10%WW · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanWW remove Ancient
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickWW take Mirage
5. BanWW remove Dust2
6. BanARCRED remove Cache
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct15:19
ARCRED 29%WW 71%
The model gave 71% on WW — the map was taken by WW.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
ARCRED 75%WW 25%
The model gave 75% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
ARCRED 78%WW 22%
The model gave 78% on ARCRED — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 59%
Series resultWW 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3